Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.198296 0.237952 0.285482 0.347249 0.426286 0.525249 0.660486
2025-05-18 0.130603 0.169726 0.221603 0.297010 0.406553 0.564408 0.817885
2025-05-25 0.090848 0.125580 0.175459 0.254925 0.383569 0.593769 0.986994
2025-06-01 0.069617 0.101802 0.151568 0.238135 0.394200 0.684767 1.327834
2025-06-08 0.055015 0.084561 0.133388 0.225533 0.409777 0.800963 1.837386
2025-06-15 0.044972 0.072366 0.120532 0.218824 0.436671 0.966971 2.683498
2025-06-22 0.037374 0.062674 0.109751 0.213143 0.466404 1.175024 4.031840
2025-06-29 0.030520 0.052904 0.096518 0.198333 0.470101 1.331779 5.628230
2025-07-06 0.023102 0.040725 0.075882 0.160608 0.397348 1.201448 5.740250
2025-07-13 0.019925 0.036187 0.070021 0.156396 0.419085 1.437108 8.841755
2025-07-20 0.017783 0.033313 0.067087 0.158822 0.465286 1.849802 15.793309
2025-07-27 0.016136 0.031163 0.065308 0.164065 0.528089 2.476659 31.958220
2025-08-03 0.014331 0.028471 0.061952 0.164812 0.582825 3.257522 69.758831
2025-08-10 0.012488 0.025366 0.056872 0.158493 0.606411 3.959999 143.380126
2025-08-17 0.010859 0.022478 0.051709 0.150079 0.616324 4.663069 302.756020
2025-08-24 0.009817 0.020799 0.049408 0.150989 0.680138 6.310975 1125.312913
2025-08-31 0.008923 0.019326 0.047341 0.152129 0.752190 8.701280 7151.472283
2025-09-07 0.008202 0.018158 0.045885 0.155302 0.848177 12.649544 233904.851625
2025-09-14 0.007553 0.017067 0.044406 0.157934 0.951725 18.650165 NaN
2025-09-21 0.006815 0.015620 0.041484 0.152868 0.990391 24.107413 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005774 0.013221 0.035061 0.128875 0.830621 19.896682 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005339 0.012414 0.033670 0.128714 0.900621 28.069917 NaN
2025-10-12 0.005038 0.011933 0.033249 0.133336 1.034561 46.374174 NaN